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The long anticipated Facebook IPO last Friday is looking more and more like an overvalued dud that will soon find a more appropriate valuation thanks to market forces. Worst, Facebook (FB) dragged down much of the social media and social networking space with it but there were still a few winners.

The Facebook IPO Winners

Its worth noting that mobile marketing and mobile advertising stocks Velti Plc (VELT), Millennial Media (MM) and Marchex (MCHX) all made sizable gains last Friday with VELT rising 14.38%, MM rising 9.57% and MCHX rising 6.90%. For the most part, these stocks have been holding their gains into this week and may hold onto them for a good reason: Advertising accounts for 82% of Facebook's revenue for the latest quarter and the company needs to find a way to fit advertising onto the screens of mobile phones and other devices. Hence, a smart move for Facebook (FB) might be to buy one of these companies or a mobile marketing technology.

The Facebook IPO Loosers

Since the market opening on Friday, social networking and social media stocks have not been friends for investors. In fact:

• LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) is down 7.7%.

• Zynga (ZNGA), a social gaming stock, is down 14.3%.

• Quepasa Corporation (QPSA), which operates a social media platform for Latin America plus the myYearbook platform, is down 18.4%.

• RenRen (RENN), which is China's version of Facebook (FB), is down 24%.

• FriendFinder Networks (FFN), which operates a number heavily trafficked social media type of websites, is down 25.9%.

Nevertheless and for investors who want exposure to the entire social networking and social media sector with out the inherent risk poised from owning one or two stocks in the space, the Global X Social Media Index ETF (SOCL) attempts to replicate the performance of the Solactive Social Media Index. Its top 10 holdings at the end of the first quarter included the following social media stocks:

1. LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) 11.75%
2. Tencent Holdings (HKG: 0700) 10.89%
3. DeNA Co (DNACF) 9.18%
4. SINA Corporation (SINA) 9.05%
5. Gree (GREZF) 8.28%
6. NEXON Co. (TYO: 3659) 7.84%
7. Yandex NV (YNDX) 5.48%
8. Google (GOOG) 4.94%
9. NetEase (NTES) 4.91%
10. Zynga (ZNGA) 4.72%
11. Other Stocks etc. 22.96%

No doubt these holding will have changed with the Facebook IPO and the ETF is down about 5.4% since the market opened on Friday, up about 3% since the start of the year and down 9.4% since last November. In other words, the Global X Social Media Index ETF (SOCL) performance has been relatively mixed but if Facebook (FB) keeps falling, it's going to drag SOCL down with it.

The Final Verdict

Again, it looks like Facebook (FB) was overvalued in its IPO which means that for better or for worst, the market will help it find the appropriate valuation that its investment bankers were not able to do. However and as we noted last week, there are still plenty of reasons NOT to buy Facebook (FB) stock but it may take time for the concerns we outlined to further impact the stock. Until then, it might be a good idea to add Facebook (FB) and other social media stocks to your NextCandle.com My Portfolio screen in order to keep track of our latest stock predictions for them as it looks like the whole social media space will be volatile for some time until Facebook finds its footing.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

Last week, wheat futures jumped 16% - the most since the five days ended June 15, 2007 thanks to dry weather threatening to damage wheat crops in the USA and Russia - two of the world's three biggest wheat producers this year. However, both Russia and the Ukraine are predicted to get showers from now and into tomorrow - helping to ease wheat prices in early futures trading this week.

Nevertheless, conditions reportedly remain dry in Kansas, a key winter wheat producing state in the USA, plus Australia. Given that wheat has yet to be harvested along with memories of a devastating Russian drought two years ago which caused a big upheaval in the grain markets, commodity traders should be checking their weather forecasts and prepare for a repeat upheaval. Moreover, wheat supplies are said to already be tight as Western Europe has already suffered significant winter damage to its wheat crops.

In other words, food prices for products that contain wheat may be rising later this year but for stock investors or traders looking for a way to profit from rising wheat prices, there are a couple of options besides betting on wheat futures.

For starters, the Teucrium Wheat Fund ETV (WEAT) from Teucrium Trading, LLC is a commodity pool that offers unleveraged direct exposure to wheat without the need for a futures account (Note: Teucrium Trading, LLC also offers a corn fund, a soybean fund, a sugar fund, a crude oil fund and a natural gas fund). The Teucrium Wheat Fund ETV (WEAT) has a market cap of around $4.6 million while on Friday WEAT rose 4.46% to $20.59 but its still down 8.1% since the start of the year and down 16.2% since last September.

Less adventurous investors could also invest Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM), a large cap stock involved in procuring, transporting, storing, processing and merchandising agricultural commodities and products like wheat. On Friday, Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) fell 1.21% to $31.82 but ADM is still up 11.3% since the start of the year, up 1.8% over the past year and down 13.8% over the past five years. Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) also has a forward dividend of $0.70 for a dividend yield of 2.2% - not bad in today's near zero interest rate environment.

Finally, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) offers investors exposure to broad range of agribusiness stocks just like Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM). On Friday, the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.20% to $46.12 and is down 2.2% since the start of the year, down 13.2% over the past year and up 13% over the past five years.

Of course, it's important to remember that overly dry or wheat weather in key agricultural regions around the world could also impact the supply and hence the price of other agricultural commodities. That in turn will impact the price food and restaurant stocks pay and if they cannot pass on any price increases to customers, they will need to absorb it at the bottom line.

This means it's a good idea to check the weather reports this week plus keep an eye on our NextCandle.com stock forecasts for agricultural and food related stocks as any dramatic weather changes that impact the supply and price of wheat may also be felt fairly quickly in the markets.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

Most investors and traders alike are probably glad that last week is over with given how volatile the markets were over renewed concerns about Europe as well as the lukewarm response to the much hyped Facebook (FB) IPO. In fact and while Facebook (FB) closed slightly higher, a number of its social media peers were sinking while reports of bank runs in Spain following the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's has European depositors and hence investors on edge.

Nevertheless and with all of the above uncertainty in mind, NextCandle.com gave the following stock predictions before the market opened on Friday:

• Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) had a 74% probability of making a lower low.

• Quepasa Corporation (QPSA) had a 71% probability of making a higher high.

• Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) had a 59% probability of making a lower low.

And the Results when the market closed on Friday:

• Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) opened higher at $106.17, had a daily trading range of $96.60 to $109.50 and closed down 5.65% to $99.02. Specifically, Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) spiked higher in morning trading but by 11.30 am it was plunging lower only to rise back up to its opening price and then slowly trend lower for the rest of the trading session.

• Quepasa Corporation (QPSA), which owns a Latin America focused social media site just like Facebook (FB), had a more interesting and wild ride for the day. After closing at $3.91 on Thursday, Quepasa Corporation (QPSA) immediately opened at a higher high of $4.30 and stayed above its previous close until about 11:30 am when it began sinking. By the end of Friday, Quepasa Corporation (QPSA) had a trading range of $3.06 to $4.40 for the day and it closed 21.74% lower at $3.06.

• Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) opened at a lower low of $1.61, had a daily trading range of $1.60 to $1.64 a share and closed down 4.74% to $1.61. My guess is that UK based banks like Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) have some exposure to the real estate bubble that has long sense burst in Spain along with the mess in Greece.

Of course, traders and investors alike should expect extra volatility with social media stocks with the Facebook (FB) IPO and with European banking stocks as the crisis in Europe deepens. Nevertheless, Next Candle's stock forecasts for Linkedin Corporation (LNKD), Quepasa Corporation (QPSA) and Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LYG) were right on the money despite considerable market uncertainty.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.